A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
