A mere two months ago that the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him over missing a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or a cause of the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. After the England international curled home his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough question to address. History, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, even as the victories have stacked up.
According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have put together a ten-match winning streak, they appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their star man to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge the club must confront in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
